Tuesday, August 23, 2011

GPH-MILF Peace Process for the Third Quarter of 2011, Part I: The Peace Process Totters on the Abyss

The 22nd Round of Exploratory Talks between the Government (GPH) and the MILF was brimming with expectation as Talks began on Monday, August 22nd, 2011. At the beginning of the 20th Round on February 9th, 2011 the MILF had handed its GPH counterparts a Revised Draft of its Comprehensive Compact, a tongue twister of a title when they could have simply labeled it, "Blueprint for Peace." A 26 page document that focused on 11 salient points, it was given to the GPH Peace Panel with the understanding that the Government would reciprocate with its own Draft Comprehensive Compact to be given to the MILF Peace Panel during the 21st Round of Exploratory Talks, to take place on March 29th and 30th.

On March 15th the 21st Round was scrubbed. Though this took place at the behest of the Philippine Government the explanation offered to the public was that the cancellation resulted from a request by the Malaysian Facilitator of the Peace Process, Dato Ab Ghafar Tengku Mohamed [sic]. Why? The verbatim explanation, "He had other, more pressing matters to attend to." Suuuure. Most realised that it was because the GPH Peace Panel needed time to formulate an apt response to the points raised in the MILF's Revised Draft without boxing themselves into a corner. Besides, the 21st Round was quickly re-scheduled for April 27th and 28th, there wouldn't be long to wait.

When the 21st Round transpired however the GPH Peace Panel did nothing but tread water. It begged off producing its long awaited Draft, vowing to turn it over during the 22nd Round, scheduled to take place on June 27th and 28th. In the meantime they wasted two valuable days of face time reviewing certain turns of phrase contained within the MILF document and tackled a couple of very simple side table issues.

Then, in late June the GPH Peace Panel notified its MILF counterpart that it still wasn't ready to submit its Draft but
rather then simply scrubbing the June Meeting, they would be amenable to an Executive Session, if the MILF was in agreement. The Executive Session took place and the 22nd Round was re-scheduled for August 2nd and 3rd. At the end of July the GPH Peace Panel once again informed its MILF counterpart that it would be unable to submit its Draft but offered a magnanimous gesture to appease a now livid MILF Central Committee; on August 4th President Aquino held a secret face to face meeting with MILF Chairman al Haj Murad Ebrahim in a suburban Tokyo hotel. In a nation obsessed with "face" the meeting in Japan was the ultimate face saving gesture. Where as the MILF had been just about to trash the Peace Process over GPH inaction it now was more than agreeable to yet another re-scheduling. The 22nd Round was then set for August 22nd, 23rd, and 24th.

The 22nd Round opened on August 22nd with an Executive Session in the Sri Bandahara Conference Room, in Kuala Lampur, Malaysia's Chulan Royale Hotel at 940AM. Both Panel Chairmen, Mario Victor "Marvic" Leonen for the GPH and his counterpart for the MILF, Mohagher Iqbal along with one Panelist each:

1) Professor Miriam Coronel Ferrer for the GPH

2) Datu Michael O.Mastura for the MILF

and Malaysian Facilitator Dato Ab Ghafar Tegku Mohamed spent exactly an hour as Chairman Leonen tried to soften the blow and salvage at least some of the 14 year GPH-MILF Peace Process. When they all emerged at exactly 1040AM on the dot not one face among them was smiling. Surely an inauspcious beginning to what was to be a pivotal Round in this long, drawn out process.

At 1045AM all participants took their places in the Executive Board Room for the Formal Opening and like the previous Round, it was held behind closed doors. Emerging for a 15 minute breather at 12PM all participants then continued uninterrupted from 1215PM until the end of the First Day Session at 140PM. In deference to both the MILF Peace Panel and their Malaysian Hosts the 3 Days were scheduled as Half Days to end by 2PM. In the midst of the month long Islamic holiday of Ramadan where Muslims fast from dawn to dusk, proceedings had to take circumstances into account.

After Opening Remarks by both Chairmen as well as by Facilitator Mohamed, GPH Chairman Leonen then handed over the GPH Draft Comprehensive Compact to MILF Chairman Iqbal. Patterned after the MILF Revised Draft submitted to Leonen on February 9th, it focused on 11 salient points. Leonen though creatively described it as a "Three for One Deal," with the "three" aspects being:

I) Socio-Economic Improvement

II) Inclusion and Respect for the Bangsamoro narrative

III) A Political Settlement.

I will condense each of the 11 points as following:

GPH Revised Comprehensive Compact

I) In partnership with the MILF the GPH seeks a permanent and just solution that will focus on sustainable improvements in all facets. Unlike past Administrations the Aquino Government is sincere and ready to prove it by adressing relevant issues.

II) The solution will be based upon a real partnership with the MILF and it may in fact lead to legal reforms.

III) It is a comprehensive solution that seeks to meet the needs of all three of the Mindanowan demographics:

A) Muslims

B) Lumad (Animist Hill Tribes)

C) Christians

The solution is cognisant of the socio-economic disparities that exist between Mindanao and the rest of the Philippines as well as the role played by shifts in demography.

IV) The solution is cognisant of the short term realities and limitations imposed by President Aquino's term in office expiring in 2016 and so focuses on those issues with the best chance of rectification within that limited period. At the same time the solution offers urgent help to those who need it the most, the victims of "colonial oppression, post-colonial neglect, misguided leaders and past abuses of some national leaders." It also sets the stage for longer term solutions.

V) The solution aims for the best outcome in the shortest amount of time.

VI) The solution is cognisant of the limitations in Executive power but also aims to construct a platform for continued dialog and if and when it becomes necessary, judicial, legal, and even Constitutional Reforms.

VII) The solution is cognisant of Bangsamoro identity and history. It doesn't aim to provide a simple solution for a highly complex problem. Although the ARMM, or Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao failed in the past, it was more than likely because of inept national leadership and corrupt regional leadership as opposed to inherent flaws in the ARMM framework. The solution will foster genuine autonomy.

VIII) The solution will provide an avenue for continued "debate" with regards to revenue sharing as well as utilising revenue sharing to further enhance regional autonomy while also focusing on the need to foster sustainability of natural resources.

IX) The solution begins the process of disarmament, de-mobilisation and reintegration of MILF and BIAF, or Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (military wing of the MILF) members.

X) The solution will require stakeholder commitment to suceed.

XI) The solution will lead to a re-writing of the Filipino narrative to include the Bangsamoro narrative and identity as being part and parcel of the Philippines.

Now, aside from being extremely vague on all pertinent issues it fails to mention anything about the MILF's "State:Sub-State Assymetrical Government" mantra. The MILF Peace Panel took extreme umbrage at this and made no bones about telling GPH Chairman Leonen that they would unanimously recommend rejection of the GPH Draft when conferring with the MILF's Central Committee. Leonen was not a happy camper but by Tuesday night, August 23rd his frown had morphed into a crooked smile and he was selling it as a positive development because the MILF Peace Panel hadn't simply thrown the document back at him after reading it.

To recall the 11 salient points included in the MILF document were, again condensed:

I) After exhausting all avenues within the Democratic process in trying to solve the Bangsamoro's ethno-nationalist conflict the MILF looks toward other similar situations on the world stage, particularly Northern Ireland and South Sudan and finds very good examples of just solutions.

II) The Draft seeks to correct the domineering and exploitative relationship between the Philippine Government and the Bangsamoro people.

III) The Draft merely offers the Bangsamoro a mere share of respect that is already owed, a people whose homeland, Mindanao, has never been conquered. Even into the American Colonial Era the Bangsamoro homeland had been considered as a separate entity and not a part of the Philippines per se.

IV) The Draft offers the Bangsamoro a mere 7 to 9% of an island that had been 98% theirs just a century before.

V) The Draft offers a balance between state sovreignity and the people's right to self determination, something never before seen anywhere in the world.

VI) The Draft focuses on an Assymetrical State:Sub-State Relationship with clearly defined separation of powers between national and regional governments.

VII) The Draft recognises Bangsamoro identity without negating Philippine citizenship.

VIII) The Draft recognises the Bangsamoro struggle and desire to obtain regional autonomy while recognising the supremacy of the national govt.

IX) The Draft melds the Democracatic maxim that sovereignity lies within each person with the Islamic principle of "Shura," or "Consultation."

X) The Draft provides a complete modus operandi with which to segue from full implementation of the FPA, or Final Peace Agreement into disarmament, de-mobilisation, and re-integration of MILF and BIAF members under International supervision to safeguard Bangsamoro interests.

XI) Peace will benefit everyone, including Malaysia.


Not that the Government has been at all sincere in trying to reach an Agreement, because clearly it is impossible to believe they have after yesterday's meltdown, but IF the MILF/BIAF insist on fantasy there will never even be an inkling of a chance. Bangsamoro? As I have noted in other entries the term is a piece of fiction created by Filipino Muslim intellectuals of the late-1960s as an attempt to overcome the ethnic, tribal, and linguistic divides amongst the 13 Islamicised groups living in the Southern Philippines. You cannot invent an "ethnicity." The "Palestinians" are surely trying and look where it has gotten them. Without a genuine historical narrative the fantasy collapses.

Another figment is the claim, contained within the MILF Draft, Point IV, that at the start of the 20th Century the "Bangsamoro" controlled up to 98% of Mindanao. If one interpolates "Muslim" with "Bangsamoro" it still fails. It only works IF applied to Mindanao's island provinces of Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi Tawi. On Mainland Mindanao Muslims never controlled more than Central Mindanao (Maguindanao and North Cotabato Provinces) and a large portion of Lanao. In fact, that "7 to 9%" is actually what they controlled 100 years ago and THAT was the maximum they have ever controlled.

It will be impossible to find peace until Filipino Muslims find truth. Have they always gotten a fair shake from Manila? Of course not. Yet, how does a group where 12 out of 13 tribes reject secular education expect to close the socio-economic gap? The other end of the equation is infrastructure and investment. How can they complain about a lack thereof when bombs are popping off every 4 or 5 days and even surveyors are kidnapped for ransom? Filipino Muslims need to accept a large part of the blame and stop always blaming others.

Tuesday's Session, August 23rd, began at 940AM and ended abruptly at 1140AM. At that point GPH Chairman Leonen stormed out of the Closed Door Session and brusquely commanded an underling to fetch all GPH staffers for an impromptu lunch meeting.

All that had transpired in those 2 hours was a quick discussion on the TORs, or Terms of Reference for the IMT, or International Monitoring Team's Humanitarian, Rehabilitation, and Development component. That component consists of two women, a Frenchwoman and a British subject deployed by the European Union. They have been in-country for four months already but working without clearly defined TORs. Then the Panels moved onto a very contentious subject, the Governments offering of tenders for Exploration Tenements on oil and gas drilling. A handful of tenders fall within the MILF AOR, or Area of Responsibility (as in "Area of Operation"). Between that and the lackluster document handed to MILF Chairman Iqbal the day before the subject was too much to bear and the MILF Panel lost their composure. Finally Chairman Iqbal bluntly told his counterpart, Chairman Leonen, that there was no point in continuing this Round under the current circumstances.

As Chairman Leonen et al departed the ICG, or International Contact Group, composed of representatives from four foreign governments:

1) Turkey (not present)

2) United Kingdom, Political Officer of the British Embassy in the Philippines, Chris Wright

3) Japan, Political Officer of the Japanese Embassy in the Philippines, Keiko Takakawa

4) Saudi Arabia (not present)

and four NGOs:

1) CHD, or Centre for Humanitarian Dialog, based in Geneva, Switzerland, represented by David Gorman

2) Concilliation Resources, based in London, England (not present)

3) Muhammadiyyah, a Jarkata-based organisation devoted to Islamic issues (not present)

4) The Asia Foundation. This favourite of the MILF began life as a CIA project and though it now claims to be entirely removed from the CIA it still serves as a conduit for American Intelligence, represented by Dr.Steven Rood

tried to placate the MILF Panel. GPH Chairman Leonen then held a de-briefing with his team in the hotel's Tai Ping Resturant, just down the hall from the Executive Conference Room. That was probably not an intended insult but in the end, eating while others have to fast isn't the height of decorum. As The GPH Panel enjoyed a sumptious lunch a member of the IVG shuttled between the conference room where the MILF Panel remained and the resturant trying to keep a 14 year long process from imploding. Pundits have hailed the ICG's utility after this last Rpund. Myself? They definitely deserve credit because at 2:20PM both Panels and the Facilitator returned to the table. Still, the mood remained extremely volatile with the MILF Panel telling their counterparts that they reject it out of hand. GPH Chairperson Leonen then lost his cool as well, screaming, "I reject your rejection" shortly before the two parties called it a day at 3:33PM. Later MILG Chairman Iqbal described the differences between the two Drafts as "heaven and earth."


A disaster from start to finish.

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