By now President Aquino had planned to be on top of his game. Scheduled to hand over the GPH (Government of the Philippines) Draft Comprehensive Compact, or "Com-Com" as it is called in shorthand, on the MILF's so called "Assymetrical State: Sub-state Solution." As I noted in my First Quarter entry on the GPH-MILF Peace Process, the MILF has climbed aboard the Autonomy train and has chosen to instead frame its wish list as a somewhat more palatable Federal-style relationship with the Central Government. The term "Assymetrical" refers to a comparison of the proposed GPH-MILF relationship and the relationship between other Regions and the Central Government. Since the MILF aims for a unique form of relationship, when held up against all other Regions, it is clearly "Assymetrical."
The phrase "State" simply refers to the Central Government, or GPH.The phrase "Sub-state" is referring to the envisioned autonomous region to be controlled by the MILF during a loosely defined transitional phase. In their last Round in Kuala Lampur, in February of 2011, the MILF Peace Panel handed over a revised version of its wish list, the aforementioned "Comprehensive Compact." When they parted, the GPH Peace Panel had committed itself towards handing over its own Draft Comprehensive Compact, using the MILF draft as a sounding board.
The problem though is that President Aquino has been planning to offer the GPH's Draft within the larger dynamic taking place with regard to the ARMM, or Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. Beginning in the Autumn of 2010. Mr.Aquino began agitating for a delay in the ARMM Election scheduled for August 8th, 2011. The President obviously envisioned getting this delay long before the present Round in the GPH-MILF Peace Process.
The idea is to kill two birds with one stone. On one hand the parallel GPH-MNLF Peace Process hinges entirely on an amendment of Republic Act #9054 (RA #9054), the so called, "Revised Organic Act." RA #9054 itself was an amendment of an earlier act that actually created ARMM. The GPH endgame in the current phase of the Peace Process involves greatly expanded autonomy within the framework of the ARMM. To do this,the President,as I just noted,needs to amend RA #9054.At the same time it wishes to offer the MNLF a share in running the ARMM (I know,I know,it didn't fare too well the last time the Government tried it but bear with me here). Also at the same time it wants to frame the MILF's latest obssesion, the "Assymetrical State:Sub-state Solution" within the extant frame work of the ARMM, albeit in the amended ARMM with greater autonomy, which is pretty much what the MILF's wish list is at the end of the day. Of course the MILF is swearing up a storm, raising its collectively clenched fist as it vows to Allah that it will never accept a role in the ARMM...
But just why is the ARMM Election so crucial to the President's agenda? If the election were to proceed in August of 2011,as scheduled, and the amendment to follow anytime AFTER that election, there would be a coterie of elected officials screaming bloody murder. There would be a whole range of issues, the most pressing of them being the un-Constitutionality of the Central Government proscribing new duties and responsibilities for extant elective positions. In simpler terms, if the Governor of the ARMM is suddenly delegated new responsibilities, or alternatively has existing responsibilities negated by virtue of an amendment to RA #9054 it would contravene the Local Government Code of 1991, an act that itself hinges upon the 1987 Constitution. Fifty duly elected officials could clog up the courts for literally decades as they challenged Governmental excess...I mean "reforms."
Another very pressing issue would be 50 odd slots,all elected positions, that the Central Government would love to stack with MNLF and MILF members. The only way in which to do this in a productive fashion is to appoint people directly to the position(s) in question outside of an electoral process. That seems like a no-brainer but one must remember that in 1996 the Goverment pulled out its black bag of dirty tricks to get the MNLF's Chairman Nur Misuari into that very same Governor's chair. It then simply tossed the election out the window at what was supposed to be the end of his term, knowing Misuari could never hope to win re-Election EVEN WITH the "Hello Garci" type shenanigans Manila is famous for ("Hello Garci" being a catch phrase relating to former President Arroyo's manipulation of the 2004 Presidential Election in order to retain power). At the same time, in appointing these people,it only makes sense if the appointment is given for a long enough period of time. Appointing officials to serve for 18 months (or any other arbitrary number below 24 months) is simply shuffling the deck without a sense of purpose. On a more serious note the MILF and MNLF would square off against Manila maintaining that they had been sabotaged from the start, as indeed Misuari did in 2001 when faced with his failure to improve the lives of his ARMM consistuents. It is crucial that appointees, or Officers in Charge (OICs) as they would officially be known (OICs),be given sufficient time.
In any event, with the Senate finally passing the President's electoral delay it becomes a moot issue. President Aquino is preparing to sign it into law on June 30th and so he can now appoint his 50 people. As it currently stands President Aquino will apoint his ARMM OICs to a term beginning September 30th, 2011 and ending June 30th, 2013. The point to that last date is that the ARMM Election will be held on May 13th, 2011 having been synchronised with the National Mid-Term Elections.
Speaking of the MILF taking on a role in a "reformed" ARMM...On Thursday evening, June 12th, MILF/BIAF mouthpiece Eid Kabalu sent an SMS (text message) to former North Cotabato strongman, warlord Emmanuel "Manny" Pinol and asked to see him face to face, promising him it would be well worth his time. Less than 10 minutes later Pinol called Kabalu and they arranged to meet the next evening, Friday, June 13th.
Showing up at 830PM in the lobby of Davao City's Marco Polo Hotel Kabalu was suprised to see that city's Vice Mayor Rodrigo "Roddy" Duterte along with his son Paolo in attendance. Pinol had intelligently asked Duterte to show up, knowing how messy things can be with people denying having said this or that. Pinol wanted a witness. Sitting at a lobby table, enjoying soft drinks, Kabalu got right to the point. Laying all his cards on the table he told Pinol and Duterte that placing an MILF member in the ARMM Governor's chair just might be the magic bullet to end the 30 year MILF/BIAF Insurgency. Pinol asked Kabalu if he was speaking on authority from the MILF Central Committee to which Kabalu responded he was. Pinol then asked Kabalu if the MILF had any particular person in mind for the position, knowing of course that Kabalu had himself in mind. Before Kabalu could respond Vice Mayor Duterte interjected and said that it was far too early to begin discussing specific people. Instead Duterte offered, compose an actual wish list, write down everything the MILF would like to happen vis a vis the ARMM and he promised he would pass it on to Manuel "Mars" Roxas III, President Aquino's former running mate and still his confidante. Kabalu suprised them all by promptly downloading the information off of his laptop and offering Duterte a four paged printout that did just that, in great detail.
With the meeting ending in high spirits Kabalu must have felt that he was on top of the world. That wave of good feeling would only last until daybreak when a Manila tabloid reported a tiny item about the Davao City meeting. The MILF's Ghazali Jafaar, Vice Chairman of Political Affairs, who with Chairman al Haj Murad Ebrahim being just about out of the picture, serves as the de facto leader of the MILF, was obviously out of the loop on the meeting. Jafaar went beyond his usual self restraint and full force into obnoxious by calling Pinol a compulsive liar. He challenged Pinol to prove that he had met with what the tabloid was saying was an,"unnamed member of the MILF Central Committee." Jafaar said that the MILF would NEVER have sought the assistance of a lowlife of Pinol's ilk. Just hours later Kabalu spoke on the record about the meeting and indeed corroborated every single claim made by Pinol. I wonder if Jafaar was more livid at not having been consulted OR about Kabulu proudly stating that he was a "good personal friend" of Pinol's.
The Pinol Clan are Illongos from North Cotabato Province whose vehement opposition to Filipino Muslim aspirations os legendary. Back in 2008 it was Manny Pinol himself who sank the MoA-AD (Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Demand) single handedly when, after then GPH Peace Panel chairman, retired AFP General Hermogenes "Gene" Esperon surretipiously faxed him a copy of it right before its under the table signing, ran to the Supreme Court screaming foul. His petition for a TRO, or Temporary Restraining Order was quickly followed by a host of traditionaly anti-Muslim politicians from the island filing their own silver bullets. Having gotten his desired Temporary Restraining Order just 16 hours before the signing on August 4th, Pinol's opposition to the document ended up sparking the 2008 War when three BIAF (Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces as the military wing of the MILF is known) went off the reservation and began slaughtering non-Muslims ad naseum. In fact, the first BIAF Base Command to do so, the 105 under Kumander Ustadz Ameril Ombra Kato ("Kumander Kato") launched the opening salvo by occupying the PALMMA Complex, five North Cotabato towns considered to be the Pinol Clan's power base.
It has been no secret that for the last year the MILF/BIAF has been imploding. From Murad's stroke last summer until now, four Base Commands have ceased to exist in all but name (105,107,108, and 115), Kumander Kato has formed his own extreme military organisation, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, or BIFF, and has been attracting dissatisfied BIAF guerillas left and right. On the other hand the BIAF's manpower has been sapped by a mass of defections to the MNLF-EC15 (Executive Committee of 15, under Kidnapping Kingpin and Vice Mayor of Cotabato City, Muslimin Sema), and to a much smaller extent, the MNLF-Misuari. Moreover, the MILF Central Committee is heavily factionalised. Kabalu was deployed to Pinol because the Central Committee faction coallescing behind Kabalu (who served only as a figurehead for expediency) believed that in going to Pinol it could revel in full deniability. Who in their right mind would imagine anyone from the MILF Central Committee having a liason with any Pinol, let alone THE Pinol single handedly responsible for destroying the MoA-AD? Indeed they played it correctly up to a point as seen by Ghazali Jafaar's extra-arrogant response when finding Pinol had claimed to have met with an MILF Central Committee member. They just didn't count on Kabalu getting full of himself.
After Jafaar went off the deep end Kabalu tendered his resignation. In doing so he came clean, although he delicately avoided tarring any fellow members of the Central Committee. Resigning his concurrent positions as BIAF Spokesman for Military Affairs and BIAF Chairman of Civil-Military Relations,both General Staff positions. Though he only officialy spoke for the BIAF his role as a member of the MILF's Central Committee and lack of any parallel Spokesman for the MILF meant that Eid Kabalu was the go to man for the entire organisation. Some may remember how Kabalu had just re-gained his positions after a huge misstep made in April of 2010. In those heady days before the Presidential Election of 2010 when Kabalu once again claimed to represent the Central Committee when signing a pact with Presidential candidate Brother Eddie Villanueva. The agreement had Villanueva vow to work with the MILF/BIAF for a just solution within the framework of the 1987 Constitution. Aside for purporting to represent the entire MILF/BIAF when signing it he broke MILF/BIAF Rule Number 1 in relation to the Election: No Involvement on any Level.
In the current Kabalu Clusterfuc*, despite his resignation, Ghazali Jafaar called an Emergency Session of the MILF Central Committee and strong armed the membership into passing a harshly worded Resolution in which it expelled Kabalu from the MILF/BIAF. Claiming the ex-Spokesman had violated the MILF/BIAF Code of Conduct he was charged with "Conduct Unbecoming of an Officer" and sacked. Kabalu certainly doesn't seem at all peturbed because with his delusions of grandeur he still imagines that he is a shoe in as OIC Governor of ARMM. Whatever viability Kabalu MIGHT HAVE had rested squarely on his role as a high ranking member of the MILF/BIAF. Having lost this cachet, Kabalu has been rendered worthless to the powers that be now that the MILF has rejected Kabalu.
Meanwhile, in the GPF-MILF Peace Process, after having notified the MILF Peace Panel via the Malaysian Facilitator, Tengku Dato Abd' Gafaar Tengku Mohammad, the GPH Peace Panel merely engaged in a half day Executive Session on Monday, April 27th.Representing the GPH was:
1) Chairperson Mario Victor "Marvic" Leonen
2) Panelist Miriam Coronel Ferrer
3) Chairperson of the GPH Peace Panel Secretariat, Iona Jalijali.
Meeting with them on behalf of the MILF Peace Panel was:
1) Chairman Mohagher Iqbal
2) Panelist, Datu Michael O.Mastura
3) Panelist, Maulana "Bobby" Alonto
The GPH Panel explained in extremely broad terms just why it wouldn't be turning over its Draft of the Comprehensive Compact but vowed, once again, to do so on August 2nd, 2011. Under almost any circumstances the MILF would have went ballisitic, probably in both senses of the word. However, going against form the MILF graciously agreed to wait until August. Why? Because the Government informed the MILF Peace Panel that it wanted to center its Comprehensive Compact around the amended ARMM. While the MILF swears up and down that such an idea is anathema to them the truth of the matter is that by simply re-naming the ARMM all that faux opposition will fall by the wayside. Both sides will hold a three day Round from August 2nd through 4th. Since the major Islamic holiday of Ramadan commences this year on August 1st all three of those sessions will be half day meetings.
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